Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012021 210522 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.40     62.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.4  12.4  13.4  19.3  24.7  50.1  50.1  50.1  F  F  F  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         33.4  33.4  32.7  30.8  26.7  22.2  22.2  22.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0   7.0  17.0 -37.0 -15.0  38.0  38.0  38.0  U  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  43.0  47.0  51.0  55.0  51.0  51.0  51.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   6.0  17.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  U  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons