Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012021 210522 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20     62.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  11.4  17.7  18.4  25.0  85.3  85.3  85.3  F  F  F  F  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         37.7  37.1  34.0  31.7  27.2  15.8  15.8  15.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  -1.0 -18.0  -9.0  35.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  46.0  51.0  52.0  57.0  50.0  50.0  50.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   6.0   9.0   2.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0  N  N  N  U  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons