Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL012021 210523 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.10     60.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  27.4  29.1  52.4  52.4  52.4  52.4  52.4  F  N  N VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.3  24.6  19.7   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -24.0  19.0  53.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  57.0  58.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  19.0 -19.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0  U VU VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons