Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022021 210614 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.50     74.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  45.5  45.0  48.5  66.6  77.6  93.6  91.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.2  60.7  54.1  46.2  11.9   9.7  11.6  11.6  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  41.0  45.0  65.0  75.0  55.0  77.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  62.0  63.0  66.0  72.0  72.0  76.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  22.0  21.0  43.0 106.0  99.0  85.0 114.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons