Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022021 210614 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90     73.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.6  38.8  44.4  55.2  62.5  62.5  62.5  62.5 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.7  58.7  55.0  28.5  10.8  10.8  10.8  10.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  35.0  74.0  73.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  61.0  65.0  65.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  11.0  36.0  65.0 123.0 123.0 123.0 123.0 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons