Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022021 210615 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.60     68.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.5  57.3  62.3  66.1  80.4  80.4  80.4  80.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         38.3  15.5  -0.2  -4.1  -5.3  -5.3  -5.3  -5.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  65.0  56.0  35.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  69.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  41.0  76.0  95.0 123.0 113.0 113.0 113.0 113.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons