Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022021 210615 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.70     63.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.3  63.2  69.1  77.9  85.8  85.8  85.8  85.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         12.3  -0.4  -4.2  -5.0  -4.8  -4.8  -4.8  -4.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  66.0  55.0  74.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  65.0  69.0  72.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  84.0 109.0 154.0 148.0 158.0 158.0 158.0 158.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons