Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210617 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     92.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  38.1  34.4  36.4  37.3  26.1  36.4  28.9  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  28.0  28.0  19.0  13.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 132.3 125.7 123.6 121.5 111.6  72.0  54.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  72.0 -15.0  45.0  21.0  53.0  75.0  45.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   3.0  13.0  14.0   8.0  -3.0  19.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%