Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210618 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10     92.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  29.8  29.1  34.7  22.5  32.8  26.4  37.2  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  31.0  23.0  17.0  11.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.6 127.9 123.6 121.5 121.5  84.4  61.8  63.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  16.0  55.0  80.0   8.0  44.0  -9.0  41.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  55.0  57.0  61.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  10.0   9.0  11.0  20.0  35.0  17.0  37.0  N  U  U  U VU VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%