Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210618 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  27.7  33.9  34.4  25.2  37.9  33.9  25.5  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  22.0  16.0  18.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 118.6 118.6 118.6  99.4  62.7  50.0  44.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  38.0  62.0  22.0  36.0  28.0  34.0  84.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  55.0  50.0  53.0  52.0  56.0  59.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  11.0  11.0  12.0  19.0   5.0  28.0 -17.0  N  U  U  U VU  N VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%