Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210618 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90     91.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  37.1  35.6  24.4  39.8  24.0  37.1  37.1  N  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  12.0  15.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 116.5 118.6 112.4  86.5  60.7  49.2  49.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  84.0  29.0  57.0 103.0   7.0  54.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  F  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  52.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   8.0  17.0  18.0  24.0  17.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%