Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210618 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.40     91.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.0  38.0  24.2  26.1  40.1  23.8  28.6  28.6  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 106.5  98.5  81.1  53.8  46.8  40.8  40.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  11.0  26.0  59.0  20.0  -4.0  64.0  64.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  56.0  58.0  58.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  13.0  20.0  16.0   0.0  27.0 -13.0 -13.0  N  U VU  U  N VU VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons