Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210619 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40     91.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.9  19.2  24.7  39.9  22.4  33.1  17.7  17.7  U  N  N  U  N  U  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 100.5  89.4  70.8  55.9  49.7  48.7  48.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  19.0  89.0  83.0   6.0   5.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  F  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  53.0  52.0  56.0  58.0  65.0  65.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  22.0  32.0  27.0  11.0  19.0   6.0   6.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons