Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210619 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20     91.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  25.8  41.9  37.8  27.3  24.7  22.4  22.4  N  N VU  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4  94.8  86.0  68.0  57.0  52.7  46.8  46.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0 101.0  98.0  21.0 -16.0  62.0  15.0  15.0  N  F  F  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  57.0  61.0  68.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  18.0  29.0  -1.0  26.0 -14.0  30.0  30.0  N VU VU  N VU VF VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons