Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210619 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.50     90.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  43.6  38.0  19.6  29.3  15.3  22.5  20.3  N VU  U  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.2  76.5  64.2  58.2  52.7  59.3  30.8  14.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   107.0 124.0  50.0  41.0  11.0  48.0  77.0  -7.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  51.0  54.0  56.0  63.0  64.0  68.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  28.0  -2.0  16.0  25.0   3.0   5.0 -17.0 VU VU  N  U VU  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons