Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210619 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.80     88.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.2  32.5  19.0  24.9  21.1  20.2  15.2  17.7 VU  U  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.7  65.5  62.0  59.8  69.2  44.2  25.5  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  53.0  12.0  18.0  56.0  19.0  41.0  -9.0  F  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  66.0  66.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  37.0   9.0  13.0  41.0   6.0  39.0  -6.0   3.0 VU  U  U VU  N VU  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons