Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210620 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.40     87.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.9  19.1  24.1  27.2  14.5  20.7  16.2  21.7  U  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.5  70.9  68.8  70.9  65.7  48.4  30.9  16.4  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  35.0   6.0   4.0  13.0  68.0   7.0  44.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   8.0  37.0  28.0   8.0  12.0  -5.0 -32.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons