Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210620 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.00     86.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  24.7  27.6  21.9  23.5  14.7  20.1  36.1  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.8  66.7  66.7  74.3  53.4  35.5  19.0  15.2  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  32.0  -5.0  26.0  24.0  37.0  49.0  40.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  63.0  67.0  66.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  35.0  37.0   6.0  45.0   0.0   4.0   1.0  U VU VU  N VU  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons