Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210620 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.90     83.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.3  17.6  17.1  23.4  15.2  16.6  20.0  20.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.7  72.0  60.9  51.9  36.8  19.1  15.3  15.3  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  26.0  35.0  76.0  58.0  -9.0  36.0  36.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  65.0  66.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  67.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.0  -6.0   2.0  56.0   9.0  39.0  32.0  32.0 VU  F  N VU  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons