Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210621 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.40     81.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  16.0  23.2  20.5  21.3  23.0  31.7  31.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.9  59.1  48.4  43.4  29.3  16.5  15.2  15.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  20.0  51.0  86.0 -17.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  N  F  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  64.0  66.0  65.0  72.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0  58.0  25.0  35.0  12.0  21.0  21.0  N  N VU VU VU  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons