Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210621 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.10     79.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  24.4  19.4  16.5  17.5  28.3  33.5  33.5  F  N  N  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         48.3  38.4  31.7  26.8   8.8   5.2   4.7   4.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  49.0  96.0  46.0   3.0  59.0  30.0  30.0  U  N  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  63.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  60.0  34.0  11.0  41.0  88.0   0.0   0.0  F VU VU  U VU VU  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons