Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032021 210621 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.40     76.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  18.8  16.3  21.7  29.3  29.3  29.3  29.3  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.2  42.6  27.7  16.8   6.5   6.5   6.5   6.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  88.0  36.0 -26.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  F  N VU  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  64.0  26.0  -2.0  48.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0 VU VU  N VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons