Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042021 210629 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.30     80.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  15.6  14.5  22.5  22.5  22.5  22.5  22.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         77.2  69.2  65.5  58.8  58.8  58.8  58.8  58.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  -1.0  -9.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  53.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons