Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042021 210629 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.00     83.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  18.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.2  79.3  79.3  79.3  79.3  79.3  79.3  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons