Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210630 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40     42.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  20.4  24.6  23.7  30.5  29.8  30.1  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  25.0  22.0  35.0  31.0  25.0  24.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 112.4 112.4 116.5 122.9 127.3 120.7 129.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  86.0 100.0  80.0  71.0   4.0  13.0  25.0  N  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -7.0  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   7.0  18.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        5.6%        3.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       10.2%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.2%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.1%        2.1%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        3.2%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        5.2%        3.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons