Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210701 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60     45.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  26.5  24.3  24.3  28.2  31.3  28.8  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  29.0  40.0  27.0  30.0  25.0  39.0  25.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 116.5 118.6 120.7 129.6 120.7 122.9 135.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  81.0  56.0  43.0  70.0  10.0  19.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -1.0   2.0  -6.0  -5.0  15.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        7.0%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       12.5%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        4.1%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        1.1%        1.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        3.6%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        7.8%        5.5%