Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210701 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30     47.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  22.2  20.0  24.0  26.0  29.6  22.7  12.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  42.0  30.0  40.0  21.0  32.0  20.0  33.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 115.7 117.9 122.3 120.1 115.7 127.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  67.0  53.0  47.0  13.0  41.0  37.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  69.0  72.0  69.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0 -10.0   1.0  18.0   5.0  F  F  F  F  F  N VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.8%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       13.6%        9.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        4.8%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        4.8%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        4.0%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       17.5%       10.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        6.4%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.8%        2.1%        3.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        4.9%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%       10.8%        8.0%