Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210701 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     50.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  21.4  22.9  24.9  28.2  28.4  16.1  14.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  35.0  40.0  34.0  31.0  36.0  20.0  36.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 117.9 120.1 124.6 115.7 117.9 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  87.0  74.0  58.0   3.0   8.0  34.0  19.0  N  F  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  16.0  12.0   1.0  N  F  F  F  F  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.6%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       12.2%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        3.8%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        3.8%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%        3.6%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       14.5%        8.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        4.7%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        3.7%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        3.6%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        6.6%       10.7%        8.6%