Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210701 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70     52.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  23.7  25.1  26.4  29.0  25.6  14.4  16.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  40.0  32.0  33.0  31.0  17.0  35.0  61.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        112.9 117.3 119.6 115.1 112.9 122.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  70.0  57.0   3.0   0.0  34.0  35.0  51.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0   0.0  21.0   9.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        2.6%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%       14.1%        9.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        5.3%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        5.3%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        4.8%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       12.1%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        3.9%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        3.9%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        2.7%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        6.3%        9.3%        7.8%