Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210702 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.40     54.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  26.0  24.6  25.6  29.8  21.1  16.8  17.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  36.0  35.0  30.0  41.0  19.0  37.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        110.1 114.6 112.3 105.7 107.9 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  46.0   0.0 -14.0   1.0  59.0  16.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -5.0   0.0  -5.0  18.0  17.0   8.0   1.0  F  F  N  F VU  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        2.5%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       11.7%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        4.5%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        4.5%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        4.2%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        9.0%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        2.7%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        3.7%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.0%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        7.0%        5.6%