Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210702 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     57.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  25.9  27.0  28.2  26.5  18.5  21.3  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  44.0  29.0  28.0  18.0  35.0  57.0  40.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        109.6 107.3 102.9 102.9 112.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  10.0  -2.0  26.0  34.0  47.0  63.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -6.0   1.0  14.0   8.0   2.0  -2.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%        6.9%        7.8%
 25kt / 24h       12.8%       23.9%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.6%       13.9%       10.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.5%       13.9%        9.7%
 40kt / 24h        5.5%       10.6%        8.0%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       21.2%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.6%        8.9%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        9.5%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        6.0%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%       11.4%        7.1%