Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210702 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     59.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  26.6  27.3  30.2  23.4  16.6  17.7  29.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  26.0  28.0  33.0  25.0  40.0  69.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.1  87.9  87.9  90.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  -5.0  19.0  20.0  61.0  12.0  10.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -4.0  10.0  16.0   6.0  -3.0   0.0  F  F  F  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.3%       19.4%       29.3%
 25kt / 24h       30.3%       38.1%       34.2%
 30kt / 24h       23.6%       31.5%       27.5%
 35kt / 24h       23.6%       31.5%       27.5%
 40kt / 24h       21.3%       27.4%       24.4%
 45kt / 36h       15.9%       29.6%       22.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.9%       15.1%       11.5%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%       15.1%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        7.9%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        9.4%        5.5%