Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     62.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  28.2  29.8  27.1  17.9  19.2  22.0  25.4  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  33.0  30.0  18.0  34.0  56.0  65.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         77.9  77.9  80.1  87.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0 -10.0   7.0  36.0  37.0  73.0   2.0  66.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  10.0  20.0  10.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U VU  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       55.4%       21.6%       38.5%
 25kt / 24h       36.5%       38.9%       37.7%
 30kt / 24h       35.1%       35.4%       35.2%
 35kt / 24h       35.1%       35.4%       35.2%
 40kt / 24h       31.4%       33.3%       32.4%
 45kt / 36h       23.2%       26.7%       25.0%
 55kt / 36h       11.7%       13.6%       12.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%       15.1%       11.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        5.4%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        5.9%        3.6%