Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210703 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50     65.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  28.7  26.6  20.4  19.6  18.0  25.5  21.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  28.0  18.0  22.0  36.0  67.0  47.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         82.9  85.1  92.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  37.0   3.0  62.0  18.0  38.0  19.0  26.0  U  N  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   6.0  17.0  12.0   8.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  F  N  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%        3.1%        6.1%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       12.1%       10.2%
 30kt / 24h        7.9%        7.7%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%        7.7%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.8%        7.7%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.7%        6.2%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        1.9%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        6.0%        4.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        2.8%        2.5%