Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210703 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80     67.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.4  27.8  24.8  19.7  20.4  21.8  20.0  24.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  18.0  27.0  35.0  57.0  54.0  70.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         90.1  99.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0   5.0  37.0  43.0  60.0  19.0  47.0   1.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  21.0  15.0   4.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   6.0  N VU  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.8%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        1.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.7%        1.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        1.3%        1.9%