Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210703 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     70.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.2  24.1  22.5  21.6  22.1  27.0  20.6  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  24.0  28.0  38.0  57.0  53.0  47.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         99.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  99.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  45.0  37.0  42.0  10.0  30.0  58.0  69.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  20.0   8.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  14.0 VU VU  U  N  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.8%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        4.9%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        2.5%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        2.5%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        2.5%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%        1.9%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.4%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.5%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        1.1%        1.9%