Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210703 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     72.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  19.7  22.6  21.5  23.9  22.3  23.2  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  30.0  43.0  65.0  56.0  74.0  21.0  22.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  88.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  22.0  54.0  15.0  56.0  57.0  30.0  57.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0   9.0  -3.0  -9.0  -4.0   2.0   9.0  12.0 VU  U  N  F  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.1%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       12.5%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        6.4%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%        6.4%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%        6.4%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%        5.9%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        1.4%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        6.6%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%        2.8%        4.2%