Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210704 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     74.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  20.2  22.8  24.4  26.6  21.3  22.4  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  45.0  67.0  82.0  69.0  39.0  17.0  19.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  99.6  82.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  35.0  53.0   8.0  20.0  40.0  56.0  47.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  67.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   2.0  -4.0  -5.0   0.0   1.0  17.0  13.0  U  N  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        3.7%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       20.0%       14.8%
 30kt / 24h        6.2%       12.3%        9.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%       12.3%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%       11.4%        7.0%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%        8.9%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        2.4%        2.7%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       10.0%        8.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        1.8%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        5.8%        3.4%        4.6%