Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210704 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90     75.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  25.3  26.3  24.8  25.3  22.6  23.1  29.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  48.0  67.0  70.0  57.0  38.0  37.0   5.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 102.3  85.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  19.0  16.0  32.0  51.0  25.0  44.0  -9.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -6.0   0.0   1.0   6.0   2.0   6.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        4.4%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.5%       26.4%       18.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%       18.2%       11.8%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       18.2%       10.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       12.9%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       14.9%       10.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        5.1%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.3%       14.0%       11.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        3.6%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        5.3%        5.0%