Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210704 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     76.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  25.9  24.6  27.0  21.1  24.1  21.6  19.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  69.0  65.0  55.0  66.0  23.0  21.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 102.9  86.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  -7.0  39.0  12.0  31.0  41.0  38.0   8.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  11.0   2.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.6%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       17.2%       11.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        9.0%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        9.0%        5.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        6.7%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       12.3%        8.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.6%        3.8%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        9.6%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.6%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.0%        5.2%        5.6%