Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30     77.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  24.3  28.5  25.6  24.7  18.4  20.5  18.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  76.0  60.0  61.0  41.0  19.0  22.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0  94.4  84.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  54.0  24.0  38.0  51.0  37.0  20.0  45.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  57.0  61.0  60.0  69.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0  -1.0  -3.0   7.0   1.0   9.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.2%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       13.7%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        6.2%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        6.2%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        5.2%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%        8.9%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        2.5%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.8%        8.7%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        2.3%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        8.2%        4.7%        6.4%