Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210705 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20     78.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  25.2  25.6  21.6  22.4  22.8  20.6  22.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  67.0  71.0  65.0  19.0  15.0  26.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 100.7  88.5  69.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  46.0  34.0  40.0  56.0  23.0   3.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  65.0  67.0  72.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  17.0  20.0   8.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        4.0%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       12.7%       23.9%       18.3%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%       12.1%        9.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%       12.1%        8.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       11.3%        6.3%
 45kt / 36h        8.1%       15.7%       11.9%
 55kt / 36h        3.5%        5.3%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.8%        9.7%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        2.9%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        4.6%        3.6%        4.1%