Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210705 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     79.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  26.6  23.9  27.8  20.9  20.6  18.0  14.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  69.0  75.0  36.0  19.0  30.0   4.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6  87.4  76.2  64.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  54.0  37.0  45.0  63.0 -13.0  30.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  63.0  60.0  68.0  71.0  U  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   5.0  10.0  17.0  11.0  20.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.5%        7.4%        8.4%
 25kt / 24h       20.3%       30.2%       25.3%
 30kt / 24h       14.1%       17.6%       15.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.9%       17.6%       12.8%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%       17.6%       11.9%
 45kt / 36h       13.0%       18.9%       16.0%
 55kt / 36h        5.8%        6.9%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%        9.1%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        3.1%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        3.3%        3.8%