Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210706 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.80     82.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  25.1  27.2  25.1  20.6  13.3  22.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  20.0  21.0  27.0   2.0  14.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 112.0 102.9  96.5  84.8  74.3  71.1  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  62.0  13.0  -8.0  54.0  35.0  75.0  80.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  60.0  61.0  59.0  69.0  71.0  77.0  70.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  14.0  15.0  20.0  12.0  21.0   6.0  38.0  30.0  U  U VU  U VU  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.9%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%        7.9%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        3.0%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        3.0%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        4.8%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.6%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%