Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210706 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40     82.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  27.9  25.1  22.3  21.7  20.2  23.2  27.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  18.0  29.0  27.0   9.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.3 105.1  96.5  94.4  77.7  74.3  51.7  22.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  25.0  19.0   7.0  41.0  21.0 101.0  57.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  59.0  58.0  64.0  71.0  77.0  76.0  71.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  19.0  12.0  11.0  20.0  18.0  42.0  32.0  U VU  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.8%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%        7.5%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        2.8%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        4.5%        2.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%