Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210706 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.30     83.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  27.4  24.8  22.3  19.0  21.0  16.7  28.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  17.0  26.0  13.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.1  98.6  94.4  90.5  74.3  69.6  37.8  14.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  38.0  -7.0  45.0  25.0  77.0  37.0 100.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  64.0  68.0  73.0  77.0  70.0  67.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  27.0  19.0  18.0  21.0  14.0  36.0   0.0  16.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        4.7%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%