Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210707 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80     83.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  26.9  23.4  18.0  20.7  18.8  37.9  56.4  N  N  N  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  18.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4  87.4  74.4  67.7  60.0  36.7   9.6  -8.2  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   3.0  37.0  20.0  67.0  50.0  85.0  50.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  68.0  60.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  21.0  28.0  27.0  34.0   0.0  14.0 -20.0  U VU VU VU VU  N  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons