Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210707 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20     83.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  23.7  18.4  22.1  24.8  27.0  44.4  62.9  N  N  F  N  N  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.5  74.4  66.1  60.0  45.5  18.4  -6.4 -10.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  59.0  34.0  22.0 122.0  86.0  73.0  48.0  U  N  N  U  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  72.0  66.0  60.0  57.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  24.0  24.0  31.0  56.0  34.0  -4.0 -47.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons