Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210707 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30     83.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  18.0  23.0  25.8  19.1  42.2  62.3  77.9  N  F  N  N  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.7  76.1  71.5  64.4  36.6  13.1   2.7  -3.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  23.0  17.0  69.0  45.0  62.0  23.0  22.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  75.0  76.0  69.0  59.0  55.0  56.0  N  N  F  F  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  16.0  26.0  49.0  26.0  34.0 -16.0 -47.0 VU  U VU VU VU VU VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons