Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL052021 210708 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.70     82.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  27.1  26.4  19.5  38.8  60.7  73.2  62.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.0  72.2  57.0  41.6  15.9   7.7   1.3   0.4  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  83.0 112.0  34.0  58.0  50.0   4.0   5.0  U  N  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  72.0  68.0  57.0  51.0  47.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  31.0  54.0  20.0  29.0 -23.0 -76.0 -54.0  N VU VU VU VU VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons